Since Bitcoin (BTC) surmounted $5,000 last week, the cryptocurrency market has slowed, expressing signs of indecisiveness at every turn. However, technicians and chartists have begun to agree that a case for a further rally to the upside is growing, as bulls have yet to abate, and bears are losing grip on a market they controlled for over a year.
Crypto Bulls Return En-Masse
For some reason or another, recent happenings in the crypto market have sparked an influx of buoyant sentiment. Maybe it was the fact that BTC easily surmounted its 200-day moving average (MA). Maybe it was the crossover in the 20-day and 200-day moving averages. Maybe it was the fact that the one-day Super Guppy, a technical measure used to indicate overarching trends, flipped green for the first time in 16 months — you get the point.
Crypto Thies, a prominent analyst, looked to further this trend of cheery analysis on Tuesday, issuing a series of Twitter posts regarding why Bitcoin is poised for another leg higher.
The Seattle-based trader, who commands a following of over 26,300, claimed that the two-week Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) measure has turned green, as the indicator’s signal lines have convincingly crossed over. The last time the Bitcoin’s two-week MACD looked as it does now, BTC was trading at $240 apiece, and the market was looking to recover from a large sell-off.
The 2W MACD has crossed in a buy signal on $BTC. We opened @ approx $4k.
The last time it happened? May 2015. #Bitcoin opened around $240.
We can still drop in accumulation, but the bottom is in ‘folks. pic.twitter.com/5X7Dc9qc5S
— Crypto Thies (@KingThies) April 16, 2019
In a subsequent comment, Thies further explained why he is leaning bullish on BTC. Citing his proprietary Market God indicator, which has accurately called crypto bottoms and tops historically, Thies noted that it recently issued a “buy” for the first time since 2015, right near the bottom of the previous bear market. He added that the fact that the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 90-day EMA had crossed for the first time since January is another bullish sign, as it accentuates that bears are seeing their hegemony evaporate.
With this in mind, coupled with a combo analysis of Keltner Channels and Bollinger Bands, Thies determined that a rally “straight to $8,000 from where we are, without retesting lows” is possible, barring that BTC holds above $4,800. He added that his year-end target for BTC is “near $8,000,” if the current uptrend and overall recovery stays its course. And interestingly, as reported by NewsBTC previously, textbook chart patterns and formations are signaling that Bitcoin will continue to head higher for the time being.
As trader B.Biddles opined, Bitcoin’s one-week chart from August to now impeccably resembles a “bump-and-run reversal bottom” (BARR Bottom) shown in a notable technical analysis book. If the BARR Bottom trend plays out as the textbook’s author, Thomas Bulkowski, explains, BTC will soon see an “uphill run” that will catapult cryptocurrencies into their next bull run.
But… Bitcoin Could See Sub-$3,000 If 2014-2015 Trend Repeats
Not so fast though. Trader Nunya Bizniz recently remarked that a golden cross (50-day MA and 200-day MA crossover) forming on Bitcoin’s one-day chart doesn’t indicate that BTC is off thin ice just yet. As shown below, when BTC experienced a golden cross in 2014-2015’s market cycle, it proceeded to crash spectacularly, falling 7% under its previous low, subsequently forming a death cross. If this specific trend was to repeat itself today, Nunya points out that Bitcoin would collapse to $2,900 by June, before finally embarking on a sustained rally.
BTC 2014/2015 market bottom. 50 & 200dma golden & death crosses. pic.twitter.com/xHySNcXRsM
— Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) April 16, 2019
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